Possible scenario
Democratic Tensions Surface
22% Chance
The retraction creates discomfort inside the Democratic coalition, especially among progressive activists who view the walk-back as unnecessary or defensive. Talarico tries to balance faith outreach, transgender-rights positioning, and a statewide general-election strategy.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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