Possible scenario
Rejoining Debate Opens
25% Chance
A more ambitious outcome is that the government begins formal preparation for a possible re-accession process under Article 49. This would not mean rapid membership, but it would shift investor expectations toward lower long-run UK-EU trade barriers.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.7%
- Finance +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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