Possible scenario
Procedural Disclosure Continues
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the Supreme Court's action remains procedural, permitting a public version of a filing without immediately changing the contempt posture. The lower-court dispute over Catherine Herridge's refusal to identify a source continues on its existing track.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.