Possible scenario
Foreign-Subversion Narrative
20% Chance
The regime may use the centers to reinforce a narrative that foreign governments are trying to arm or organize Iranian dissidents. This would connect the program to the 2026 claim by Donald Trump that the United States had tried arming Iranians, raising headline risk without necessarily changing military facts on the ground.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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