Possible scenario
Controlled Loyalist Training
38% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the Tehran centers become a tightly managed Basij and police-affiliated program for loyalist women rather than a broad public arming initiative. Authorities use it to project regime resilience after years of hijab protests, foreign-subversion claims, and police modernization efforts.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.