Possible scenario
Strike Campaign Intensifies
20% Chance
The school fire proves to be part of a broader Russian effort to pressure Ukrainian cities after the Patriot announcement. This would be a more material geopolitical signal, though still within the established war context rather than a new NATO-Russia confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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