Possible scenario
Qatar LNG Disruption
18% Chance
The strike forces Qatar to slow or temporarily suspend tanker movements from Ras Laffan even if production sites are not newly damaged. Given earlier attacks on Pearl GTL and Qatari LNG production, traders price a higher probability of LNG shortages in Europe and Asia.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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