Possible scenario
Retaliatory Escalation
27% Chance
Riyadh concludes that repeated attacks on its capital require a stronger military response and expands strikes on Houthi launch sites, depots, and command nodes in Yemen. The Houthis answer with additional missile and drone launches, keeping regional risk elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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