Possible scenario
Limited Iranian Retaliation
28% Chance
Iran or IRGC-aligned actors could try to impose costs on Britain without triggering a full war. The most plausible forms are cyber disruption, harassment of allied facilities, or a deniable proxy attack outside the UK mainland.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.