Possible scenario
Narrow Hill Compromise
25% Chance
After the 49-50 defeat, a smaller bipartisan package becomes more plausible than reviving the full CLARITY Act. Lawmakers focus on stablecoins, custody, and registration safe harbors that can attract a few Democratic votes.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
Tickers
- CRCL+1.4%
- +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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