Possible scenario
Agencies Fill Vacuum
40% Chance
With the CLARITY Act defeated by one vote, the SEC and CFTC move ahead under their January 2026 memorandum process. This is the most likely path because both agencies already signaled they would coordinate oversight if Congress failed to legislate.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- CME+0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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