Possible scenario
Contained Attrition Continues
42% Chance
Iran-linked attacks continue at a low-to-moderate tempo, but U.S., U.K., and Gulf naval escorts prevent a full halt to traffic. Oil markets price a sustained risk premium, while insurers and tanker operators adjust routes and convoy procedures.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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