Possible scenario
Coalition Military Response
27% Chance
Repeated strikes on commercial tankers push Washington and allies toward direct action against launch sites, drones, or IRGC naval assets. The most likely form is limited and calibrated, but even a bounded strike raises near-term escalation risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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