Possible scenario
Conditionality Slows Funding
25% Chance
The first tranche is approved, but subsequent payments become more conditional as donor fatigue and oversight concerns grow inside the EU. This path does not end support for Kyiv, but it makes the cadence of aid less predictable and increases short-term fiscal pressure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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