Possible scenario
Asset-Backed Lending Expands
18% Chance
The successful first tranche encourages Brussels and G7 partners to expand lending backed by profits from immobilized Russian assets. The key risk is legal and operational complexity, especially around Belgium, Euroclear, and possible Russian retaliation against Western holdings.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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