Possible scenario
TSMC Anchor Deal
45% Chance
TSMC and Musk-controlled companies move from talks to a framework agreement, with TSMC likely serving as the process-technology and fab-operations partner rather than simply licensing know-how. This is the most likely path because TSMC gains a major U.S. AI customer base while Tesla and SpaceX reduce dependence on Asian foundry capacity.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.7%
- Industrials +0.7%
Tickers
- TSLA+3.8%
- TSM+3.7%
- SPCX+2.7%
- INTC-1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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