Scenario description
Assume that by 2027-03-31 TSMC does not proceed with the proposed Texas fabrication campus because U.S. advanced-manufacturing tax-credit support is not extended, is extended too late, or is otherwise insufficient for project economics. In this world, TSMC abandons, shelves, indefinitely delays, or materially scales back the Texas campus below the reported at-least-$20-billion concept, while its Arizona commitment and possible non-Texas alternatives such as Singapore remain separate capital-allocation options. The precise lost investment amount, credit rate, and timing of any redirected capital are not specified in the supplied evidence.