Possible scenario
Staged Pilot Plan
25% Chance
The parties keep negotiations alive but avoid committing immediately to a full terafab. A smaller pilot, advanced-packaging, or specialty-node phase would reduce execution risk while preserving optionality for Tesla, SpaceX, and TSMC.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
Tickers
- TSM+0.5%
- TSLA+0.3%
- SPCX+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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