Possible scenario
Multi-Foundry Pivot
15% Chance
Musk uses TSMC negotiations to pressure other foundry partners rather than awarding the entire project to TSMC. Samsung's existing Tesla AI chip relationship and Intel's unused U.S. manufacturing ambitions make a split-sourcing outcome plausible.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
Tickers
- TSM-1.3%
- INTC+1.1%
- TSLA+0.9%
- SPCX+0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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