Possible scenario
Republicans Hold Congress
22% Chance
The Democratic polling lead proves insufficient because Republican turnout improves and the generic ballot overstates Democratic strength in marginal districts. Inflation remains a liability for Trump, but Republicans survive through candidate quality, district geography, and targeted spending.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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