Possible scenario
House Flip, Senate Holds
42% Chance
The Rasmussen move reinforces a broader pattern of Democratic advantage on the generic ballot, especially with inflation blamed on Trump by a large majority of voters. The most likely outcome is a Democratic House majority while Republicans retain the Senate because the Senate map and incumbency still favor the GOP.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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