Possible scenario
Sanctions And Proxies
23% Chance
If Iran's criticism hardens into rejection, Washington is likely to respond first with additional sanctions and enforcement rather than direct military action. Iran could answer through calibrated regional pressure while avoiding attacks that would trigger a US or Israeli escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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