Possible scenario
Prolonged Bargaining
42% Chance
Tehran's statement that the US response is insufficient most likely functions as negotiating pressure rather than a final rejection. Iran, the United States, Oman and Qatar continue indirect diplomacy while both sides avoid steps that would make a seven-day peace framework impossible.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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