Possible scenario
Courts Check DOJ
35% Chance
Federal judges and congressional Democrats move quickly to test whether FBI arrests were politically directed rather than evidence-driven. This is the most likely path because the headline creates a clear constitutional and procedural issue, but courts usually respond through hearings, discovery orders, and injunctions rather than immediate institutional rupture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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