Possible scenario
Freight Crunch Persists
35% Chance
The most likely path is a sustained but not uncontrollable freight squeeze as Hormuz remains blocked and sanctions keep Iranian tonnage sidelined. US Gulf-to-Europe cargoes become the marginal barrel, forcing refiners to pay up for vessels and insurance while governments avoid immediate military escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
- Industrials -0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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