Possible scenario
Coordinated De-Escalation
30% Chance
Washington, Brussels and Gulf intermediaries move to contain the crisis through diplomacy, strategic stock releases and exemptions for selected cargoes. Freight rates remain high but stop accelerating as traders anticipate more available barrels and a partial return of shipping confidence.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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