Possible scenario
Trade Deal Reinforced
18% Chance
The Texas project is used by both governments as proof that the 2025 tariff-and-investment bargain is working. The key effect is political: Korean exporters gain confidence that the 15% tariff framework will not worsen in the near term.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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