Possible scenario
Tariffs Stay Firm
42% Chance
The Trump administration maintains the global steel tariff framework despite complaints from manufacturers. Domestic steelmakers retain pricing power as import competition remains constrained and buyers restock before further price increases.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +1.8%
- Industrials -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
- CLF+2.7%
- NUE+2.6%
- STLD+1.8%
- -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.