Possible scenario
Orderly High-Yield Plateau
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is that 30-year gilt yields remain near 6% but trading stays orderly. Investors demand a higher term premium for the UK's large financing need, while pension funds and insurers provide enough long-duration demand to prevent a 2022-style liquidity break.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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