Possible scenario
Fiscal Credibility Test
25% Chance
The 6% gilt level increases pressure on the UK Treasury to show a credible path for borrowing and debt service costs. Markets focus on whether Chancellor Rachel Reeves, the Office for Budget Responsibility and the Debt Management Office can reassure investors before the next major issuance window.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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