Possible scenario
Severe Infrastructure Losses
20% Chance
Polo remains exceptionally intense into landfall and causes unusually broad damage to power, ports, highways and hospitals across the peninsula. This is a lower-probability but high-impact outcome with more visible insurance, rebuilding and tourism effects.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.0%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.6%
- Finance -0.4%
- Utilities -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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