Possible scenario
Limited Regional Clash
26% Chance
A contained military exchange occurs through either proxy attacks or a limited Israeli strike, but both sides avoid full-scale war. The most likely kinetic path is deniable or narrowly scoped action designed to restore deterrence without closing the Strait of Hormuz.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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