Possible scenario
Hormuz Risk Materializes
20% Chance
The confrontation shifts from missile signaling to maritime pressure in or near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is unlikely to attempt a prolonged full closure, but harassment, seizures, mines, or drone activity could briefly disrupt tanker flows and insurance pricing.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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