Possible scenario
Coercive Signaling Continues
42% Chance
Iran keeps the missile campaign framed as deterrence and military readiness rather than the start of a direct strike cycle. Tehran uses the exercises to signal capability after recent escalation, while Oman, Qatar, and European intermediaries press both Iran and Israel to avoid a direct exchange.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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