Possible scenario
Tariff Inflation Split
20% Chance
The market focuses on the distinction Goolsbee is drawing between supply-shock inflation and demand-driven inflation. This creates a stagflation-lite risk: breakevens can rise even as investors worry that higher rates are hitting sectors that are not the source of the price pressure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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