Possible scenario
Hawkish Consensus Holds
27% Chance
Goolsbee's warning fails to shift the broader FOMC message because officials remain focused on sticky services inflation and inflation credibility after the first hike since 2023. Markets keep pricing another possible tightening step, pressuring duration-sensitive and cyclical equities.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
- Technology -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.