Possible scenario
Maritime Disruption Widens
30% Chance
Even without catastrophic port damage, the strike convinces shipowners, insurers, and charterers that Fujairah and the UAE east coast are no longer safe. Tanker delays and war-risk premiums create an immediate supply-chain shock for crude, refined products, and bunkering.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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