Possible scenario
Contained Fujairah Strike
45% Chance
Iran's reported missile fire proves real but causes limited physical damage at or near Fujairah. UAE air defenses, U.S. surveillance assets, and emergency port procedures keep export facilities operating, leaving markets stressed but not in a full supply shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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