Possible scenario
Managed Reserve Diversification
30% Chance
China continues to diversify reserves but does so gradually enough to avoid destabilizing Treasury markets. The most likely policy path is continued gold accumulation paired with careful messaging that holdings changes are part of routine reserve management.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology +0.1%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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