Possible scenario
Gold Accumulation Continues
40% Chance
China keeps leading official-sector gold demand as the PBOC prioritizes reserve diversification after years of sanctions risk and Treasury reductions. Other emerging-market central banks continue to add smaller amounts, reinforcing a steady official bid rather than a disorderly shift.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.6%
Tickers
- NGT+1.5%
- +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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