Possible scenario
Congress Extends Support
20% Chance
The clean obligation of the current package may give Ukraine supporters an argument for another limited tranche. Any follow-on package is more likely to be incremental and audit-heavy than a large open-ended supplemental.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Tickers
- +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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