Possible scenario
Domestic Backlash Rises
15% Chance
Civil society groups, opposition lawmakers, or anticorruption officials argue that the legislation contains loopholes or expands executive control too far. The dispute does not automatically block aid, but it complicates Ukraine's domestic reform consensus during wartime.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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