Possible scenario
Fuel war escalates
20% Chance
Kyiv continues attacks on Russian fuel infrastructure, either to degrade Russia's war machine or to challenge the political logic of the diesel deal. The immediate market effect would center on oil, diesel cracks, energy equities, and geopolitical volatility.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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