Possible scenario
Democrats Preserve Cushion
44% Chance
Democrats continue to benefit from late-arriving mail ballots in Clark County and maintain a meaningful statewide early-vote advantage. The pattern is consistent with the recent timeline showing Democrats expanding their lead after the court blocked new mail-ballot requirements.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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