Possible scenario
Count Becomes Contested
18% Chance
The race tightens enough that rejected mail ballots, signature cures, and late-arriving ballots become decisive. Prior litigation over mail-ballot rules increases the probability that party lawyers challenge procedures in Clark or Washoe counties.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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