Possible scenario
Persistent Border Pressure
45% Chance
Russia continues attacks close to the Polish-Ukrainian border without intentionally striking major Polish targets. Warsaw treats the threat as enduring, keeping preemptive air operations, civil-defense measures, and border-crossing evacuations available as standing procedures.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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