Possible scenario
NATO Deterrence Hardens
25% Chance
Poland uses Tusk's warning to press NATO for a more visible eastern-flank deterrent posture. The alliance avoids offensive action but expands air defenses, surveillance, and rules for intercepting drones that approach Polish territory.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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