Possible scenario
Limited De-Escalation
20% Chance
Russia reduces the frequency of attacks immediately adjacent to Poland after NATO signaling and quiet diplomatic warnings. The border remains militarized, but markets interpret the change as lowering the chance of an accidental NATO-Russia incident.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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