Possible scenario
Conditional Approval Deal
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a negotiated package in which the U.S. Commerce Department grants limited export approvals for SK Hynix's China NAND operations in exchange for concrete U.S. fab commitments. This fits Washington's pattern of using export-control waivers to extract onshore investment while avoiding a sudden disruption to memory supply chains.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- SKHY+4.5%
- LRCX+1.6%
- AMAT+1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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