Possible scenario
Approval Stalls
25% Chance
Washington may resist an explicit trade-off between China equipment approvals and a U.S. NAND fab, especially after the 2025 tightening of curbs. A prolonged review would leave SK Hynix exposed to operational bottlenecks in China and weaken confidence in the timing of its U.S. debut.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
Tickers
- SKHY-5.1%
- LRCX-1.7%
- -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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